As of this moment, they're predicting Hillary winning New Hampshire by 3% over Obama.

I don't call that a comeback.

John Edwards took 17% of the vote.  If Edwards doesn't win, who do you think most of those people are going to back?  Certainly not Hillary after his unrelenting attack on her special interest ties.

Not to mention the fact that, to get the nomination, you need to win delegates, not votes.  Clinton and Obama tied at 9 pledged delegates a piece.  There are 5 superdelegates from NH and who the heck knows how that works, but either way, it's not totally clear that Obama will not sill win the vote of the delegates from NH come convention time.

I think Edwards should just quit now, campaign for Obama, beat Hillary, and be VP and run again after.  He's certainly young enough.  Both him and Obama are both about change and they're going to need to combine forces to win.

Blogged with Flock

I just got this e-mail from Fresh Direct, my online grocery delivery service:

So...  let me get this straight:

• The government spent money to go after people who came to this country to work boxing my food in a warehouse.
• Now those people will be unemployed.
• The warehouse will be short staffed and so I'll get worse quality service.
• Delivery fees will likely have to go up in the future because, without "illegal" workers, the labor pool is smaller and therefore wages need to go up.

And what are we protecting again?  American citizens' right to get all the crappy warehouse jobs?

Why do we even have any rules on who's allowed to work anyway?  How is it possible that we aren't better off as a society with free movement of labor?  If the best qualified or hardest working people get the best positions, isn't that a good thing?

Just out of curiousity, I checked out Presidential Candidate immigration policies.  Seems like they all have some kind of bone to pick, but that Obama has the most liberal one, including amnesty for existing workers.

Blogged with Flock

I'm going to write a series of posts on what I'm hoping 2008 will bring in different topic areas, and I'll start with politics.  After all, when you say "2008", the first thing people think of is the presidential election.

Just once, I want to vote in an election with a candidate I can really get behind--someone with a proven track record of accomplishment and moreover, the ability to bring people together.  Right now, I watch the political debates and I just feel bad about where this country is going and who's taking us there.

We're too busy talking about immigration and the military and we're ignoring issues like education and healthcare.  We're debating whether or not immigrants should get drivers licenses and we've going a generation of kids in our schools that are falling woefully behind their peers in other countries.  Why?  Because candidates pander to bitesized issues people can have kneejerk reactions to.  Solving the education problem in this country is too hard--its a complex issue, and so is healthcare.  Most of the current candidates don't have comprehensive healthcare plans...  why bother?  Most of us wouldn't understand the economic or coverage impacts anyway.  But we do understand big walls between us and Mexico.  Is there really anyone out there whose life would be significantly improved by a big wall?  No, but we can sure have an opinion about it.  That's what we're going to wind up voting for...  big walls and licenses.

And why the f are we still on the electoral college?  That's got to go away.  My votes don't even count directly.  Some democracy.

Did anyone notice Bush just vetoed an Iraq spending bill?  Um... wait.. if he doesn't support this thing anymore, what are we still doing there? 

I'm still waiting for Mike Bloomberg to run, but the longer this goes, the more I feel like I'm going to get left at the alter.  We need someone out there who is willing to rise above the infighting around getting nominated by our two parties...someone who just speaks their mind.  I want someone who speaks about finding real solutions and has real priorities that make sense. 

I'm usually pretty optimistic about life, but we're running out of years where we can continue with "America as usual".  We're a land of entitlement now.  I see it in the kids I teach.  Few of them know what real work means--what it's like to really challenge themselves, because they never had to.  We have a generation of kids that is having stuff handed to them and they think the real world is going to be like that.  It's also the same kids that are getting our best educations available.  Full support, no hunger.

In fact, we're doing a pretty nice job of coddling these days.  Can't pay your mortgage?  It's ok...  we'll keep your rates low... lower than the rates of financially responsible people who signed up for fixed rate mortgages on houses they could afford. 

Someone call you a bad name?  Don't worry... we'll get them fired.  You don't have to stand up for yourself.  Screw free speech, because bad words hurt. 

We're nitpicking about what words which people can say, and meanwhile we're choking our planet to death.  We're the last industrialized nation not to sign the Kyoto Treaty.   I have to be honest.. I don't even know what's in the Kyoto Treaty, but I do know it's an effort to treat the environment better and every single other country thinks its a good idea.  It would be one thing if there was some competing treaty and then I'd have to compare the two side by side, but since we don't seem to have any answers of our own, it seems pretty ignorant to just stand here with our arms crossed and be the last holdout.  More screwy priorities.

People in this country need to realize that we're all on the same side...  to learn to accept differences of opinion and work together in spite of them.  Pro-life?  Pro-choice?  Gay marriage?  If we don't learn how to work together, we can forget about being a competitive, productive partner in the world economy and political scene.  I'd like a candidate that understands that, and brings people together to accomplish real advancement--putting structures in place that will help us over the long term, not win monthly popularity votes.  It's not Hilary Clinton.  It's not Rudy Giuliani.  Barak?  I dunno...  Mitt?  Meh.  Ron Paul?  Eek.

Somebody...  show me something... anything.  I'm tired of America as usual.

Blogged with Flock

I haven't decided who I want to vote for yet next year.  I don't like Hilary.  Barak is ok, but I'm a registered independent, so if he doesn't win his own primary, I can't support him anyway.  On the Republican side, I always liked Rudy as mayor, but I don't think he's the least bit qualified to be President.  As for the rest...   I dunno, just too many to keep track of at this point. 

And I keep holding out hope that Mike Bloomberg will run... that he'll go all in and spend a billion on making it to the White House...  and make the tough choices that need to be made.  When he was Mayor, he made tough, but smart decisions about closing firehouses and raising property taxes because the city was in a in a tough financial spot after 9/11.  His approval rating sunk to the lowest approval rating any mayor has ever seen since they started taking polls of mayoral approval ratings.  The way he spoke at Cooper Union the other night, he made me believe that he was a guy willing to make tough decisions in Iraq where, as he put it, "there were no good choices."

There's only one problem with Mike Bloomberg... 

...he's not running.

And, until he says he's in, his "campaign" tactic of being an outsider who just talks on the sidelines isn't going to pick up any traction.  Why?

Being the President of this country requires a ton of passion and dedication.  When I hear that the Mayor is "considering" running, that troubles me.  That would be like someone "considering" a marriage proposal.  When I ask someone to marry me, they better say yes right off the bat, because I don't think I really want to marry someone who has to think about it.  More so than anything else, I imagine that the one serious prerequisite of the Presidency is that you absolutely know you want to be President.

I think that's part of the reason people couldn't get behind Al Gore the first time around.  I think for a lot of people, it just didn't really seem like he wanted to be President that badly...  like he was running because he felt like he had to.... like that's what sitting VP's do.

I've heard that there are a lot of things Bloomberg needs to do first before to prepare to run, like selling the major media and business information company he built from the ground up.   Fine, but, at some point, this becomes like that like from Spaceballs:

"What are you preparing. You're always preparing. Just go! "

I've heard that Bloomberg doesn't want to join a race that he doesn't think he can win.  Well, sorry Mike, but that's the minimum risk that is required of you to run--to face the fact that you might lose.  This isn't going to get handed to you... especially not as a third party candidate.  You need to go out and grab it for yourself, and frankly, its surprising to hear that a successful entrepreneur would hesitate to enter a race because he doubts he could win.

You have to give people something to hang their hat on...a parade to get out in front of.  I'm not going to go join a campaign to coax you into the race.  I want you to run, but if you don't want it enough to say it, every day that passes gets me closer and closer to figuring out who else I can support that actually wants this.  Without actionable items, without something specific to ask people to do, its going to be difficult to get people to care at all.  There are plenty of people who want to support you, but even more people who don't know anything about you.  That takes time, not just money, and I'm afraid that if you wait until Super Tuesday, you're not going to have enough time to convince people that you actually want to be President.   A lot of people just aren't going to wait around that long.

So, for now, I'll support the person of Mike Bloomberg, who has done an amazing job for this city, but I can't support the campaign of Mike Bloomberg if it doesn't exist.

Mario Cuomo is such a likable guy...  He's giving a great intro for Bloomberg.

Ok, Mario, a little over the top intro for Brokaw...   

Brokaw starts off pointing out his change of parties and changing baseball team affiliations.... obviously, this isn't word for word.

Should Lee Bolinger have allowed the President of Iran to speak of Columbia?  Bloomberg gives a supportive free speech answer.   

Should President Bush speak with the President Iran?  We shouldn't be talking to him directly at a high level, but should be talking to every country on the face of the earth at some level.  Inappropriate and incendiary to allow him to leave a wreath at Ground Zero.

Are we safer now than we were in '02 or '03?

Is Rudy Giuliani exploiting his role in 9/11, particularly during the last anniversary ceremonies?
He was invited, as were lots of other political figures.  He was the Mayor at the time and the face of New York at the time... important to have him there.

How are the Democrats shaping up for '08?

I find both parties...  rather... blame ourselves for instant, soundbite answers, allowing candidates to duck tough questions, because the public doesn't demand answers to tough questions.  For both parties, we don't really grill the parties enough.  The press should help us look at qualifications, information.  This country is in big trouble... we've lost relationships.  We've got trade issues.  We're hurting our environment.  We have very few friends in this world.  We have a lot to be proud of and shouldn't be ashamed about what we bring to the party, but we have an arrogance and a go in alone approach.  I don't know what the solution is for Iraq any more than anyone else does, but none of the choices are good... but the real problem is rebuilding relationships around the world and not go in alone.  Why we tried before isn't important, but we can't do it anymore.

We have domestic problems, like healthcare.  Western Europe spends less money than we do and has a higher life expectancy.   What are we getting for our money?  Current plans offered by candidates aren't realistic.  At least they're trying.  Mitt Romney at least instituted a plan.  Socialized medicine doesn't seem to be working so bad in Europe.  If I was a candidate, which I'm not, but you can keep a secret, right...    well, because of the partisanship, there are things that you can't address and if you're running... if you're a democrat you just can't demand troops out fast enough, if you're a Republican, you can't say you want to raise taxes... the result is that we as voters don't get straight answers during the primaries.

Would you order a pullout of troops by April 15, 2008?
If you pull them out quickly, you lead to a massacre and destabilization...  Look we want them out as soon as possible, but picking a date... there are no easy answers here.  We need to find a way to get these people to live together, all the various groups... Jordan is a lynchpin in that region as well.

Does the President have a Plan B for Iraq?
You have to ask the President.  You have to be willing to ask people, try things, but have courage to stick to your instinct.  I wasn't party to the intelligence.  I don't want to talk about how we got there.  I don't know what I would have done.  Congress certainly voted to go to war.   Most congresspeople voted to go to war in the first place. 

Has the President failed to ask this country enough?
One of the worst things we've ever done is treat returning soldiers the way we did in Vietnam.    We have an all volunteer army and they still show up even though they know what they're going to face.  You're right that the rest of us don't really feel the pain of this war, other than the families of those troops.    Bush should find better ways to talk to the public about why we're there, not a partisan thing the way it is now.  We don't trust the military leadership anymore.  In many cases, we're not even supplying our troops with the right weapons systems because even creation of arms is a political activity.   Back in Lexington many years ago, we're now like the British were there...fighting an insurgency... a trained military.

Shift gears...  NYC has the most improved public school system in the country...
Don't thank me... thank the taxpayers, teachers, principals... the public has invested... teachers have gotten a 43% raise.  We have a long ways to go.  For decades, people said black and latino kids can't learn, so we created a two class education system.  I'm very proud of the fact that the gap, even though its intolerable that it exists, is closing.  Its easy to blame the unions for everything.  Generally, the teachers are hardworking, flexible, honest.... I'm glad we have them.  Generally, they're interested in improving the lot of their members.  Truth of the matter is that Randi Weingarten has been able to deliver a lot.  Joel Klein has been able to deliver a lot.  It's been a good balance.  It's an example of the fundamental thing you need to do is having accountability.  We're a lot closer to having accountability than we've ever had.  We're going to deliver report cards on the schools to the parents and sure people are going to scream, but we need to be able to talk honestly about the problems.  Teachers want to work here.  People want to work with an organization that is successful.  We're even giving incentives for the really good people.  Our teachers are working very hard and you can see the results.  The results are there.  Its a big school system. 

Should there be a mix of charter schools and vouchers?
Competition in the public school system is good... even the UFT runs a charter school.  Charter schools are places where you can innovate.  There are things that have worked elsewhere that we're trying... we're trying things, not with public money, where we don't know if they are going to work...  its worth trying.  You take a 2000 person school and break it up into 4 and you get double, triple the graduation rates.  With vouchers, there are just some fights you just can't win.  Plus, I'm not really sure that vouchers really work. 

Why wouldn't you run for President of the United States?
There are lots of candidates out there.  There are other ways to make a contribution.  I've been very lucky and modestly successful in business.  I'd like to able to say that this administration really advanced the ball.  My next career will probably be in philanthropy.  I've got the best job... its a job where you have to deliver results.  If I were to say that I want fifth avenue to run northbound tomorrow, you'd see signs changed and a cop on every corner, it might be a dumb idea, but you'd say it.

Just don't try it on the West Side, please...
Well, you know, we can be a model for everyone else here in this city.  There are only 14 cities in this country with populations of more than 100k that are safer and you've probably never heard of most of them.  We're going to drop the crime rate by a large amount... a record amount.

After Super Tuesday, if you're not happy the choices, are you absolutely ruling it out?
My first priority is a Subway Series...   I'm not a candidate for President.  The right question is what are the qualifications.  We took great pains to have a scorecard of things that I promised... and its never a big story.  People just focus on the things you haven't done.  The public focuses on what does work.  If you want to have a smile on your face, walk out with the belief that things are better than you think and things can get better.  People are coming here and staying here.  Even when countries hate us, people still come here.  Its American freedoms, American science, but people still vote with their feet and they come here.  One year, I closed six firehouses, raised property taxes and put a smoking ban in and if you can do that you can do anything.

Do you know who it is?

I'll give you a hint... he doesn't live in Gracie Mansion.

But... it is, in fact, our Mayor.

Cooper is holding an event that I think is worth pouring into the streets for, because the tix are free if you get there on time.  This line is going to make the line for Shakespere in the park look like a walk in the... um... park.

Yeah, so anyway... here are the details...  See you there!

Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and journalist Tom Brokaw at The Cooper Union Dialogue Series, Tuesday, September 25th at 6 p.m.
The event is free but seating is limited. The latest in The Cooper Union Dialogue Series, this event features a conversation between Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and journalist and former NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw on issues of national importance. Tickets will be available on a first-come, first-served basis the day of the event, September 25, 2007 starting at 4:00 p.m. in front of Cooper Union's Foundation Building: 7 E 7th Street, between 3rd and 4th Avenues. The free event begins promptly at 6 p.m. in The Great Hall. The doors will close at 5:45 p.m. Cooper Union's President George Campbell Jr., the host of the event, and former New York State Governor Mario Cuomo will make opening remarks introducing the speakers.

I will pull us out of everywhere and address the world in a live telecast....

"Do whatever the fuck you want, we're out of here."

Then, I'll divert all military spending to spending on alternative energy and big seawalls, for when the global warming floods come.

And on the outside of the seawall, I'll write in big letters:

"Don't let the massive seawall dissuade you from coming, our borders are now open.  We don't like half the people who are already here, so what difference does it make?  Just make sure you pay taxes and don't litter.  No nose picking or loud radios after 10PM either.  People need to wake up early, you know... and we shouldn't need to tell you about the nose picking."

After that, we'll start a government secrets blog.  First post: All about the aliens.  In fact, that's part of why I want to be President in the first place.  Tell me that's not a cool meeting:

"Ok, so give it to me.  What's the deal with the aliens?  Can I see the bodies?  Does the spaceship still work, like in Independence Day?  Oh, and JFK, too.  What happened there?"

Oh, and I'd promote a la carte, month to month pricing for everything.  Anyone can get any heathcare plan, not just the ones your company picks for you.  Cable, too.  You don't watch that channel, you don't have to pay for it.  Cell phones?  No two year contracts.  No penalties for quitting.  If you get bad service, feel free to leave.

And that stupid "winner of the All-Star game determines the home field advantage in the World Serious"... that goes, too.  Seriously, what the f is that?  If you win 120 games, your team should get home field.

What else?  Oh, yeah... basic parenting classes.  If you need a license to fish, you should need a license to unleash offspring onto the world.  We could make the test pretty easy, but at least just cover the bare minimum stuff.  Kind of like driving.  If you can't identify a stop sign, then you shouldn't be allowed to drive.  Same with kids.  If you don't know that feeding your kid McDonalds each day isn't healthy, sorry but you're going to have to retake this test until you pass.

Speaking of food...   Government mandated portion sizes, particularly for beverages.  Until you learn not to drink yourselves into diabetes with Super Big Gulps of Diet Coke, you just can't have that much.  It's no good for you.

And we'll fix that ridiculous electoral vote process, too.  Person who gets the most votes wins. 

We'll also be taking state by state votes on gay marriage.  To any state that doesn't allow gay marriage, we're going to make them put that big Arnold Diaz "Shame on you" finger on their "Welcome to..." road signs.  We'll also institute a prejudice tax on those states to pay for extra copies of wedding albums from the gay weddings being held in other states.  Albums will be airlifted and dropped on the homophobe  states and should any 'phobes get clonked on the head with an album, well, that's the price of creativity.   That's about as far as I think I can go without making marriage a federally regulated institution, like communications.   Just look at our damn cable and cell phone bills and service.... yeah.. just not a good idea.

Oh, and wiffleball on the South Lawn...everyday.

I just got some politically oriented links supporting John Edwards in my "links for you" section in del.icio.us from "austinforedwards".

The "links for you" section of my del.icio.us account is like an e-mail box, which pretty much makes this spam.  I don't support Edwards for President (he's a good guy, but I'm just waiting for Bloomberg to run... )  So, for one, I'm going to tag this post for:austinforedwards so they can see that I don't want to be spammed.   Two, del.icio.us needs some sort of blocking or report as spam mechanism in that section, because, as of this moment, I have no way to prevent someone I don't know from just tagging a whole bunch of links for me.